Why Do We Care Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Why Do We Care - Essay Example This can be affirmed in delving into the broad spectrum of career paths that it offers- geologists, meteorologists, demographists, surveyors and many more professional fields. (Macmillan, 18). Through it we gain the requisite knowledge in understanding the various natural phenomena that occur. In the long run we are able to combat and curb the disaster levels. A student well endowed in the geographical world would for instance be able to make a very successful farmer by the knowledge of disaster management in terms of floods and draught as well as predictability of climate in climatology. Geography also plays a role in urbanization by affirming good and suitable areas for building; this can be related to geology and topography. Therefore, students are equipped with the understanding of development i.e. play a very vital role in architecture and Engineering. As we rap up, it is very evident that Geography is a key component of study that delves into student’s endeavors. It is a herb that greatly offers a variety of professional choices as well as equipping the learner to face the world at an added

What is the Attraction of Dove Ad Legacy Coursework

What is the Attraction of Dove Ad Legacy - Coursework Example By asking mothers how they felt about their bodies, and then linking their feelings, perceptions, thoughts, attitudes and general orientation towards their bodies with how their daughters, in turn, felt about their bodies, the ad makes a powerful case for urging mothers to consider what they want to leave behind for their daughters as their part of their legacy. This is a powerful emotional appeal, given the obvious importance of the daughter in the lives of women as mothers. This is probably the woman’s strongest bond with any person. The implied message is that Dove cares about how they feel about their bodies and how the women are in relationship to the most important people in their lives, their children. Bringing mother and daughter together evokes positive and very intense feelings of love and the intense feelings associated with motherhood and all that the bond implies. There is an obvious linking of all this powerful current of emotions with Dove, and how Dove wants to position itself as something that will make women feel beautiful and good about themselves and their bodies. There is the aspect too, of Dove being a part of what mothers can positively leave behind for their children as part of the mothers’ legacy to their children. The bigger legacy, of course, consists of positive vibes, happiness, being at home with one’s body, loving oneself and accepting oneself, that Dove representsÃ'Ž The key argumentation, in terms of Aristotle’s appeals, is the appeal to pathos, or the emotions. This is also an appeal to self-identity, the women’s interests relating to self (Writing Commons, 2014). As the literature on pathos suggests, and as the Dove ad demonstrates, this is a very powerful appeal. The very premise of the ad- that mothers pass on how they see and feel about themselves to the most important people in their lives, their children and their daughters-   is inherently laden with powerful emotions (Kemp et al., 2 012). The supporting ad elements, including the music, all work in concert to emphasize and enhance the appeal to pathos. This is by design. There is an attempt to on the part of the ad to appeal to the audience of the ad in the same way. In the same way that the ad elicits the emotional reaction of parents by linking the exercise to their young daughters, and saying that the daughters are affected by the mothers’ feelings about themselves, the ad also makes an appeal to the emotions as far as the audience is concerned. The buildup of the music cued to reach a crescendo towards the end is an obvious attempt to imprint a powerful and positive emotion to the hearts of the audience at the end of it, like in a movie. Moreover, the choice of adult mothers with young daughters as the participants in the ad is deliberate, as those constitute a major target market for Dove products. The appeal to the emotions work where the audience is able to identify with the characters in a   mo vie, a book, a story, and here an ad (Kemp and Kopp, 2011). The race mix of the mothers also makes sure that the different target market ethnicities are included, to make sure too that the different members of the target market are able to identify with the mothers in the ad. There is an Asian mother, an African American mother, and three Caucasian mothers.

Service Mechanism for Diagnosis of Respiratory Disorder

Service Mechanism for Diagnosis of Respiratory Disorder Service Mechanism for Diagnosis of respiratory disorder Severity Using Fuzzy Logic for Clinical Decision support system Faiyaz Ahamad Dr.Manuj Darbari Dr.Rishi Asthana Abstract: Respiratory disorder is a chronic inflammatory lung disease. Globally Respiratory disorder is based on the functional consequences of airways inflammation, clamitous nature and not proper diagnosis. In this paper our aim to develop Service Discovery Mechanism for Diagnosis of respiratory disorder Severity Using Fuzzy Logic for Clinical Decision support system. An Mechanism system has been Created for fuzzy rule-based system. Five symptoms have been taken for the decision of the respiratory disorder conditions. Keywords: Respiratory disorder ,Information system, , Fuzzy logic. I. INTRODUCTION Respiratory disorder is a major public health issue in the world [1,2]. In the United States alone, it influence 7.2 million teenager and 14.8 million adults. Globally, it affects an estimated 350 million family, and is important for approximately 1 out of every 250 deaths [3, 4]. A survey based study estimated the percentage of Respiratory disorder patients in Western Europe and North America with à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢severe‘‘ symptoms to be approximately40% [5]. Especially troubling is that it has increased significantly in the past 2–3 decades in the U.S. and worldwide [6]. Hospital based study on 20,000 children under the age of 18 years in 1979,1984,1989,1994,1999,2004 and 2010 in the city of Bangalore showed a prevalence of Respiratory disorder is 9%, 10.5%, 18.5%, 24.5%, 29.5%, 30.94% and 33.74% respectively. Reasons for this increase are not clear; however it may reflect increased exposure to environmental risk factors [7].The episodes of Respiratory disorder severity cause coughing, wheezing, chest tightness and difficulty in breathing. An Respiratory disorder attack can be life threatening. There are many diseases with almost same symptoms and normally misdiagnosed with Respiratory disorder . Although the occurrence of Respiratory disorder is not known exactly and its diagnosis is unclear but in some populations Respiratory disorder is under-diagnosed. Some sources claim Respiratory disorder is under-diagnosed in teenagers, with event of coughing, wheezing not considered possible cases of and thus not seeking diagnosis and treatment for Respiratory disorder .Diagnosis of Respiratory disorder earlier can show a basic role in medical Diagnosis [10]. It is a basic knowledge that if a symptoms of patient different then patient goes to different doctors, therfore different doctors give different opinions regarding the grade of the disease. Also, possible two persons with similar symptoms going to the same doctor may be investigating differently. This show that there is a certain amount of fuzziness in the rational process of a doctor [5,11,12]. Fuzzy logic controller, a outstanding application of Zadeh’s fuzzy set theory [13], is a possible tool for dealing with ambiguity and duplicity. Thus, the expertise of a doctor can be shaped using an fuzzy logic controller. The accomplishment of an fuzzy logic controller builds upon its expertise base on which consists of a database and a rule base. It is attended that the achievement of an Fuzzy logic mainly bank on its rule base, and betterment of the membership function which is gathered in the database is a fine process [8]. II. DESIGNING OF FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM FOR DIAGNOSIS OF RESPIRATORY DISORDER The aim of this work is to develop a service mechanism for diagnosis of respiratory disorder severity, it is the specialized unit of a hospital for patients who require special medical care The system consists of two developmental phases: phase I for implementing the solution to communicative information system and phase II for implementing the solution to the decision support system. So as to bring out the various features and perspectives of both the solutions, the whole system is elaborated with the help of the architectural views and process flow diagram. Comprehensive Software architecture of Mechanism for Diagnosis of respiratory disorder Severity Information System proposed to combination of the modules- Compliance and Decision Support are well modularized to keep high cohesion and low coupling which are the major design principles of the Software Architecture[9] . The process flow of combined system provides an insight of how the whole system works. The Architectures take care of all the required functionalities by the Diagnosis of respiratory disorder Severity. Figure.1.1 Comprehensive Software architecture of Fuzzy Inference System for Diagnosis of Respiratory system Information System 2.1 Model Development Due to this development of the mechanism for Diagnosis of respiratory disorder severity Decision support system play very important role in the development of fuzzy inference system. Different authors provide different definitions and scopes of a decision support system (DSS). Albert and Soumitra defines a DSS as- â€Å"Decision support systems (DSS) are interactive, computer-based systems helping decision-makers (individuals and/or groups) to solve various semi-structured and unstructured problems involving multiple attributes, objectives, and goals† [Angehrn-98]. Some say that a DSS provides advices (Active DSS) [Caleb-Solly-03] while others argue that they just provide support to decisions (Passive DSS) [Lee-01]. There are number of event under each classification of fuzzy inference system, where they can work input variable to Output variable find out. We can introduce number of different type of variable to find the accurate severity of respiratory disorder in the patient . due to this Inference system we provide (global)standards for the exchange, management and integration of data that supports clinical patient care and the management, delivery and evaluation of healthcare services. Specifically, to create flexible, cost effective approaches, standards, guidelines, methodologies ,enable healthcare information system interoperability and sharing of electronic health records. Table 1.1. The number of events under each classification of fuzzy Inference system Respiratory disorder Symptoms are: I. Peak Expiratory Flow Rate (PEFR) II. Daytime Symptom Frequency (DSF) II. Nighttime Symptom Frequency (NSF) IV. Peak Expiratory Flow Rate Variability (PEFR Variability) V. Oxygen Saturation (SaO2) 2.2 Algorithm for repository Disorder In the present work all input variables (PEFR, FVC, FEV1 and FEF 25-75%) have been divided into 4 categories such as Low, Medium, High and Very High. Each one is defined by the individual membership functions. Low, Very High is shown by trapezoidal membership function and Medium, High is shown by triangular membership functions. But in case of output variable, it is also divided in to 4 categories as Severe, Moderate, Mild and Normal. Norma and Severe is shown by trapezoidal membership function and Moderate, Mild is shown by triangular membership functions [15,16] Figure 2.1: Membership Function Input Variable PEFR Table 2.1: Membership Function Input Variable PEFR Figure 2.2: Membership Function Plot for Input Variable FEV1 Table 2.2: Membership Function value for Input Variable FEV1 Figure .23: Membership Function Plot for Input Variable FVC Table 2.3: Membership Function value for Input Variable FVC Figure 2.4: Membership Function Plot for Input Variable FEF2575 Table 2.4: Membership Function value for Input Variable FEF2575 Figure 2.5: Membership Function Plot for Output Variable Respiratory disorder Severity Table 2.5: Membership Function value for output Variable Respiratory disorder Severit Table 2.6 shows the rule base for the respiratory disorder inference system. Figure 2.6: Rule Viewer for Repository Disorder Inference System. There are various input and Output Variables, on the basis of which we design 19 rules selecting an item in each input and output variable using AND Operation. These Variable are selected as the basis of rule defined in the FIS. THE RULES ARE spreads on the left row. these rules are viewed on the basis of status line selected a rule number. The first four plots in the graph yellow plots. which shows the membership function referred to anterior, and if-part of each defined rules. The fifth column of plot as shown in graph blue plots shows membership function, or the then- part of each defined rules. the design which are untouched in the if-part of any defined rule corresponds to the characterization of the variable in the defined rules. The end plot in the fifth column represent the Aggregate weighted decision for the given FIS System. this agreement will depend on the input values defined for the plot. The output is shows as on vertical line of the plot. variables and their current values are displayed on the top of the columns in the plot. Table.3.2 Results of the Fuzzy inference system output and field data output III. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS Based on the rules define in the FIS system computed the on the basis of information severity of Respiratory disorder by implement AND connection and after that we defuzzify the generated output using the centric method [14]. The AND operation has been used to perform logical operation .In fuzzy logic system the truth of any statement is matter of degree so the AND connection performed a min operation. The truth table has been converted to a plot of these fuzzy sets then fuzzy create single set. Figure 3.1 show the operations work over a continuously changes range of truth values A and B on the defined fuzzy operations [17]. Table 3.1: Logical operation AND table performed Fuzzy Logic Figure 3.1: AND operation varying range of truth table A and B The output of this system presents the possibility of Respiratory disorder severity gradation from very high to very low in terms of measured values (0-100). These outputs are classified in four classes presenting the status of patients as a risk of Respiratory disorder. These classes include Severe (0-40), Moderate (40-60), Mild (60-80) and Normal (80-100) Table.3.2. Defuzzification of the Output As much as fuzziness in fuzzy system support the rule evaluation during the transitional steps, the final desired output obtained input variable is generally a individual number. However, the accumulated of a fuzzy set cover a range of output values and defuzzified in order to resolve a single output value from the set [18,19]. Dca(c)= (Figure 3.2). The defuzzified value has been computed based on the following equation; Figure 3.3: Defuzzification of the aggregate output Where dCA(C) is the defuzzified value and C is the Membership Function [17]. Based on the AND operation every defined rule has been examined for a given set of defiend Input values and the rule defiend which satisfied the operational logic has been used to generate the output for the FIS. So that each rule has been aggregated and AFTER THE defuzzified using centroid OPERATION to generate a single output which is a single number representing the severity of Respiratory disorder . IV. CONCLUSION The purpose of the proposed work is to design a system for the diagnosis of Respiratory disorder severity using Fuzzy Logic, so that familiar people who assume little bit of Respiratory disorder may use the system and obtain the result on the bases of severity of Respiratory disorder, which will be defiend to support appropriate corrective purposes before the harshness increases. Fuzzy logic system used for respiratory system severity that these result are better than other conventional system. These system are well supported in the medical science , doctor’s and practitioners. Who faced a problem due to result of respiratory in conventional system The result obtained by the using of FIS system are accurate and very helpful in the field of medical science. the Table.3.2 Results of the Fuzzy inference system output and field data output adequacy of the system developed is to be endorsed by the doctors in the ground conclusion. V. REFERENCES [1]. Yawn B. P. (2008). à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢Factors accounting for asthma variability: achieving optimal symptom control for individual patientsà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬-. Primary Care Respiratory Journal, 17: 138-147. [2]. Teresa To, Sanja Stanojevic, Ginette Moores, Andrea S Gershon, Eric D Bateman, Alvaro A Cruz, Louis-Philippe Boulet,(2012) Global asthma prevalence in adults: findings from the cross-sectional world health survey, BMC Public Health, 12:204. [3]. Robert H. Lim, Lester Kobzik, Morten Dahl, (2010), Risk for Asthma in Offspring of Asthmatic Mothers versus Fathers: A Meta-Analysis, [4] Bousquet,J., Jeffery,P.K., Busse,W.W., Johnson,M. and Vignola,A.M. (2000). à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢Asthma: From broncho constriction to airways inflammation and remodelingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬-. American J. RespirCrit Care Med. 16: 1720-1745. [5]. Klaus F. Rabe, Mitsuru Adachi, Christopher K.W. Lai, Joan B. Soriano, Paul A. Vermeire, Kevin B. Weiss, and Scott T. Weiss,(2004) Worldwide severity and control of asthma in children and adults: The global Asthma Insights and Reality surveys, Journal of Allergy Clinical Immunol VOLUME 114, NUMBER 1, pp-40-47. [6]. Lim RH, Kobzik L, Dahl M (2010) Risk for Asthma in Offspring of Asthmatic Mothers versus Fathers: A Meta-Analysis. PLoS ONE 5(4). [7] .Pradeepa P. Narayana, Mithra P. Prasanna, S. R. Narahari, and Aggithaya M. Guruprasad, (2010), Prevalence of asthma in school children in rural India, Annals of Thoracic Medicine, 5(2): 118–119. [8] M.R. Partridge, (2007), examines the unmet need in adults with severe asthma, Eur Respir Rev, 16: 104, 67–72. [9] F. Ahamad â€Å"Service mechanism for clinical decision support system for an Intensive care units† 978-1-4799-1205-6/13/$31.00  ©2013 IEEE [10] Guidelines for Management of Asthma at Primary and Secondary Levels of Health Care in India (2005). http://www.indiachest.org/pdf_files/Asthma guidelines.pdf. [11]. Behl RK, Kashyap S, Sarkar M, (2010), Prevalence of bronchial asthma in school children of 6-13 years of age in Shimla city, Indian J Chest Dis Allied Sci, 52(3):145-8. [12]. Zadeh,L.A. (1965). â€Å"Fuzzy sets†. Inform. Contr. 8:338-353. [13]. Zadeh,L.A. (1973). â€Å"Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes†.IEEE Transactionson Systems, Man andCybernetics.3: 28-44. [14] .Sethi, S, Murphy, TF (2008), Infection in the pathogenesis and course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. N Engl J Med; 359:2355. [15] .Hargreave F. E. and Parameswaran K. (2006). à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢Asthma, COPD and bronchitis are just components of airway diseaseà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬-. European Respiratory Journal. 28: 264-267. [16] Payne T.(2000) Computer decision support system. Chest; 118:47-52. [17] Novà ¡k,V., Perfilieva,I. and Mockor,J. (1999). à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢Mathematical principles of fuzzy logicà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬- Dodrecht: Kluwer Academic. 45-50. [18] Pratihar,D.K., Deb,K. and Ghosh,A. (1999). à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢A genetic-fuzzy approach for mobile robot navigation among moving obstaclesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬-.Int. J. Approx. Reason.20: 145-172. [19]. Roychowdhury,A., Pratihar,D.K., Bose,N., Sankaranarayanan,K.P. and Sudhahar,N. (2004). à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬ ¢Diagnosis of the diseases – using GA fuzzy approachà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬-.Information Sciences.162: 105-120.

Impressionism bridge between past and future Essay -- Essays Papers

Impressionism bridge between past and future One critic described Impressionist painting as â€Å"tak[ing] a piece of canvas, colour and brush, daub[ing]a few patches of paint on it at random, and sign the whole thing with their name†. Manet, although never truly an Impressionist by style, he led artists including Monet, Degas, Renoir, Pisarro, Sisley and Cezanne, in a new artistic direction. This young group of artists, who had no real connection to each other until one critic lumped them together as â€Å"Impressionists†, banded in a time when their country was in turmoil and would leave the world the greatest collection of artwork. Through times of favour and denunciation, friendship and animosity, the pastiche of artists were both a culmination of a an art period and a bridge to the next artistic discovery. The France that most of the Impressionist artists were born into had experienced a â€Å"recent history...as dramatic and changeable as the era the painters were about to live through† (The Impressionists Handbook 12). By 1851 Emperor Napoleon III was firmly entrenched as a ruler of France. As a sign of his power, Napoleon III began his reign with press subjugation and a political assimilation. In juxtaposition to this harshness, he was also regulating bread prices and endorsing industrial and commercial growth in France in order for the country to follow the rest of Europe into the Industrial Revolution. Although traipsing behind most of the other surrounding countries, Napoleon III brought the â€Å"development of banking institutions, railways and factories† (Handbook 13) into France. Along with this new industrial growth came many sacrifices and gains for the people. With the steam engine and new modes of transportation, the power to work faster i ncreased yet along with that increase the work day grew longer as well; as long as sixteen hours a day with very little personal time. Products were revolutionized and capitalism could thrive yet the worker’s role continued to diminish to a point where they were no longer an important person, simply a body to push along the industrial revolution. With these new technologies were new exploitation and a diminishing worker-employee relationship. The 1861 American Civil War that led to the emancipation of slaves in the United States had a ripple effect from across the ocean. ... ...oes of the 19th century basked in their social deviancy. They may not have been as revolutionary as they would have like to believe yet still managed to alter the art world and place it on a new path for future artists. Even though the group itself began to disband in the 1880s as Neo and Post-Impressionism were evolving, the artists maintained their radical social position into the 1900s (Handbook 16). Although brief in time, the Impressionists would become like a bridge in a Monet painting connecting the past to the future in art history. Works Cited David, Jordan. Transforming Paris : the life and labors of Baron Hausmann. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1996. Honour, Hugh and John Fleming. A World of Art Hisory. London: Laurence King Publishing, 1995. The Impressionists Handbook. Leicester: Abbeydale Press, 1999. El Impresionismo [Impressionism] Barcelona: Parramon Ediciones, 1996/ New York: Barron’s Educational Series inc., 1997. Lewis, Anne-Marie. â€Å"Realism and Impressionism†. Lecture to INFA 2900, York University. Toronto. March 8, 2000 Willard, Christopher. â€Å"Make a Big Impression with impressionist Techniques† American Artist Oct. 1999: 18

A journey of thousand miles

A journey of thousand miles, says an infamous adage, begins with a single step. This saying speaks volumes for life and relationships alike. Far from being generic, the saying does in fact strike a sensitive chord, at least as far as I am chiefly concerned. For early on in life, I have been taught that each one of us is bound to take a path that would lead one to realize the noble purpose of one’s otherwise brief life.At this point, my discernment leads me to consider taking a step towards a path not everyone would readily entertain – to take up a Masters Degree in Education. And I know that this is exactly where I can embrace my greater purpose of in life.I believe that I am gifted to have both a passion for Mathematics and a knack for academic instruction. My desire to become a Mathematics teacher in the secondary level therefore stems from natural giftedness in view of both ends.In my stint as an instructor, I have come to realize that what spells fulfillment for som eone called into this profession lies not so much in how sizeable one earns on a bi-monthly basis, but on how fulfilled one becomes in seeing his or her students learn things that would later on help them become established individuals themselves. Â  If only to mentio.I have had the privilege of working with students, which on the surface, pose great challenge not only for instructors but also for the learning environment; these are, among others, students coming from low-income families, those whose English adeptness are classified as secondary, those who are most often under-represented, and even those tagged with negative backgrounds on account of their parents’ involvement in drugs and gangs.I believe that working with these students, i.e., working to ensure that these students get to receive their share of the promising benefits of education, have greatly moved me to consider further developing my instructional skills in order to better serve them. Far more critical, my experiences have also made me realize that there is a pressing need to prepare for similar experiences of this nature which I have yet to encounter in my professional journey.I am of the firm belief that a Masters Degree in Education, with special concentration on Mathematics, will help me become better equipped to respond to the many challenges of present-day educational instruction. Now more than ever, the need to be more competitive and inclusive in instructional approach – i.e., the need to create a learning environment that appreciates and caters to the individual needs of, ideally, each learner – requires a fair amount of expertise both in one’s theoretical base and practical instructional skills.Basic knowledge can hardly be enough. For when the welfare of our younger generation is at stake, I must do everything and anything, but falter. Along the same vein, I believe that continuing to tread along a professional path with a Masters Degree will ensure th at I can always end up in a better position to handle instructional issues that require not just basic knowledge but also – even more so – expertise.To this end, I have decided to pursue my graduate studies at the Charter College of Education in California State University, Los Angeles; and I must say that I am making this decision not bereft of good reasons. I am fully aware that the Charter College of Education can help me realize my goal to become an expert in the field of secondary education.Besides, it is not for nothing that the University is admired for making successful professionals out of its students. By right of mere logic, I can only surmise that the educational programs of the University have been very successful in tapping the potentials of its learners. In many ways therefore, I do believe that, for a learning institution that promises to give individual attention to their students, the Charter College of Education is the best choice there is for me.Tru e, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. But one has to make sure that he or she takes the right one, lest the journey end up self-defeating life’s greater purpose. As for myself, I am certain that, by deciding to pursue my graduate studies at the Charter College of Education, I am taking not just the first step, but also making the right choice.

Nigerian Economy: Macroeconomic Analysis

sisNigeria – Country Report 2012 61310039 Indian School of Business 7/6/2012 Contents Economic Overview3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)3 GDP Composition4 Inflation4 Shadow Economy5 Trade Overview5 Foreign Debt7 Labor Market & Human Capital7 Population and Income Inequality8 Unemployment9 Currency10 Money Supply and Monetary Control10 Fiscal policy12 Exchange rates12 Interest Rates13 Foreign Direct Investment14 Globalization and Comparative Advantage14 Conclusion15 References16 Economic Overview Nigeria's economy is estimated to be worth about $262bn, making it one of the largest economies in Africa.The estimates and analysis of various indicators is discussed in the later sections. The country has fared better than many other countries during the global economic downturn, but systemic problems in infrastructure and the labor market mean that its position in the Economist Intelligence Unit's global rankings remains towards the bottom during the forecast period, at 75th out of 82 countries. Efforts to create a significantly more attractive business environment are likely to produce only modest results owing to the slow pace of more fundamental reforms. Nigeria has taken steps to simplify trade by working on its tariff structure.However, there is still a protectionist sentiment in the country. Cross border smuggling is still a major concern and is liable to remain an important feature of the Nigerian economy. The capacity and efficiency of Nigerian ports (Trade) have improved following the implementation of an ambitious concessioning program that transferred management of terminals to private operators. However, although the reforms have improved port operations and ship turnaround times, there remains the problem of corruption in the customs service, which can complicate and delay the clearance of goods. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)The latest GDP projection data as brought out by World Bank is $ 268. 5 billion (2013 F) and the country population is projected at 175 million translating into a GDP/Capita to 2,213. The Real GDP Growth for Nigeria has been at 6. 8 %. However, considering the disparity in the country’s infrastructure viz-a-viz other Asian developing nations the growth rate is not enough for substantial improvement. Nominal GDP| 2007| 2008| 2009| 2010| 2011| 2012(F)| 2013(F)| US$ bn| 166. 5| 208. 1| 169. 4| 196. 3| 244. 2| 262. 4| 268. 5| N bn| 20,941| 24,665| 25,225| 29,498| 37,590| 42,877| 46,720| Real GDP growth %| 6. | 6| 7| 7. 8| 7. 4| 6. 4| 6. 9| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| GDP Composition In Nigeria, the Investment component of the GDP as compared to the private consumption and government is very low, hovering at 17 % approximately. A developing market is required to invest around 40 to 50% of GDP in capital investment for successive number of years. However that is not seen with Nigeria. Hence, the prospect of Nigeria as an investment destination appears to be grim in the near future. | 2007| 2008| 200 9| 2010| 2011| 2012 F| 2013 F| Private consumption| 6. 6| -34. 3| 6. 4| -26. 7| 11. 8| 9. | 10. 4| Government consumption| 90. 8| 4. 4| -8. 1| 17. 8| 12| 8. 5| 8| Gross fixed investment| 24. 5| -6. 8| 9. 1| -3. 6| 6. 5| 6| 6. 5| Exports of goods & services| -11. 7| 43. 4| -30| 11. 4| 11. 9| 10. 4| 12. 4| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| The graph below gives the GDP contribution – Industry wise for Nigeria. Crude is one of the major contributors to the GDP. Hence, and rate fluctuations in the price of crude oil have added volatility in the Nigerian GDP. Inflation Despite monetary tightening carried out by the CBN in 2011, the forecast for inflation remains negative.Inflation is expected to increase to 12. 7% in 2012. Fiscal laxity by the states is one of the main reasons for this. In addition, the payment of the newly instituted minimum wages and the injection of funds into the bailed out banks, inflationary pressure is bound to continue for the rest of the year. It is exp ected moderate only in 2014 as a result of moderation in commodity prices. The April 2012 inflation data as obtained shows a Month-on-month inflation to be (0. 13%), Year-on-Year (12. 9%), 12-Month Avg. Chg. (11. 1%). The inflation rate is exceedingly high and is detrimental towards investment in the country.The Consumer Price Index and Nigerian Inflation rate is shown below. Source: Economic Intelligence Unit Shadow Economy The untaxed and unregulated revenues – by some estimates – account for between 40% and 45% of gross domestic product (GDP). Nigerians make most of their living, as street hawkers, minibus drivers, money changers or market traders. In spite of the abysmal performance of the country’s economy, poor infrastructure and unfriendly business environment Nigeria has huge potentials to be tapped because of its huge deposits of Natural Resources nd population that can be gainfully employed. The black economy accounts for a large part of the Nigerian e conomy. Trade Overview Nigeria has considerable natural resources such as oils, and the revenue from oil exports forms a major chunk of the Government fund. Nigeria has recently started a sovereign wealth fund and the excess returns from oil exports viz-a-viz projected returns is directed to this sovereign fund. This fund is building up at a slower pace as the revenue is being directed towards meeting government excess spending to meet the countries capital requirement.The country has been putting efforts to tighten the fiscal policy and the same has been reflected in their medium-term expenditure framework. The country has projected a year-on-year budget deficit of 1% of GDP. However, from the recent trends it appears that Nigeria will be able to sustain a year-on-year budget deficit of 2% given the prices of oil remain stable even though the current European turmoil and a slowdown in china can push oil prices down and lead to further increase in Nigeria’s Fiscal deficit.Nig eria intends borrowing from the international capital market for meeting its capital expenditure requirement in the near future. The total value of Nigeria's exports in the first quarter of 2012 is at about USD 30 billion, the exports to India has reached USD 4. 2 billion, compared to USD 3. 7 billion credited to the US in the period under review. Nigeria's export to India is mostly crude oil and cashew nuts while India exports pharmaceutical goods, machinery, electronics and rice. The US was trailed by the Netherlands with USD 2. billion, followed by Spain with USD 2. 4 billion and Brazil which recorded USD 2 billion. Nigeria is a member of the WTO and does not impose permanent import restrictions however it has a huge banned list of import goods which coupled with ad valorem tariffs have given rise to increase in smuggled goods. As such the restrictions do not seem to have benefited the local industries. There are specially designated export processing zones which provide benefits from tax, duties, foreign exchange restrictions and import-export restrictions.The Nigerian Export Credit Guarantee and insurance corporation (Nexim) provides insurance under the government’s export guarantee scheme. This has helped exporters in raising funds at subsidized rates for refinancing. Nigeria figures 133rd on the Doing Business in Index among 183 world economies and 15th among the 46 sub Saharan African economies. The trade balance of Nigeria for period 2007 to 2011 and forecasted data for 2012 and 2013 is given below. | 2007| 2008| 2009| 2010| 2011| 2012(F)| 2013(F)|Trade balance| 37,748| 45,885| 25,342| 20,237| 34,528| 34,131| 28,778| Goods: exports fob| 66,040| 85,729| 56,121| 73,698| 103,847| 114,068| 111,836| Goods: imports fob| -28,291| -39,844| -30,779| -53,461| -69,319| -79,937| -83,058| Services balance| -16,902| -22,113| -16,479| -19,231| -24,761| -24,278| -25,914| Income balance| -11,747| -15,059| -14,404| -18,623| -22,905| -20,913| -24,624| Current tra nsfers balance| 18,545| 19,366| 18,694| 20,092| 25,004| 27,387| 28,562| Current-account balance| 27,643| 28,079| 13,153| 2,476| 11,867| 16,327| 6,802| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit|Nigeria and its neighboring African nations have imposed strong continental Trade Barriers which is depriving the continent of new sources of economic growth, new jobs and leading to a sharp fall in poverty and other factors. However, many African countries are losing several billions of dollars in potential trade earnings every year, because of high trade barriers with neighboring countries. It is easier for Africa to trade with the rest of the world than with itself.The Policy progress in the nation has been restricted due to political instability and tussle between the presidency and senior economic team. Policies towards changes in exploiting the proceeds from fuel exports are always the concern restricting policy improvements. The country has huge limitation in the power sector and the governmen t has initiated privatization program focused mainly on the power sector, However the progress has been slow as a result of private-sector reluctance, the various vested interests involved and strong union opposition.This is limiting foreign investments in Nigeria. Nigeria urgently requires Tax reform for attracting investments in the country and this policy reform is high on the political agenda. However due to conflicting interests and the fragile nature of the Nigerian administration reforms are expected to be slow. Foreign Debt Due to the economic slowdown public sector revenue and expenditure has contracted in the past 3 years. As a result of the budget deficit, infrastructure is facing acute shortage which is mostly financed by internal public borrowing while also seeking access to external funding.The Nigerian government has set on the path of prudent reforms to reduce total spending while improving funding for capital requirements for efficient spending that will translate t o long term economic growth. The government also launched a Euro denominated bond in 2011 and expects to return to the international debt capital markets again in the next few years. Labor Market & Human Capital The education system of Nigeria is in a poor state unable to meet the educational requirement of the country. There are currently only 46 tertiary institutions in Nigeria providing education covering all functional areas.Out of the 42m Nigerian children who ought to be in primary school, less than 24m are in school. Out of the 33. 9m children of secondary school age, only 6. 4m are in secondary schools. The pass rate for JAMB examinations is about 20% – indicates poor quality of secondary school graduates. The educational system has not been tailored to meet developmental needs of the nation. Any foreign investment has to transfer both funds and human capital to the country. There are no improvements visible in the near vicinity.The Nigerian Labor market is marred wit h constraints and there appears little prospect in the near future of resolving many of the key constraints to improving the labor market in Nigeria. Most of the talented Nigerians prefer to move out of the country and the country is suffering from a ‘brain drain’. Nigeria has a large number of very capable professional and highly skilled workers in a range of sectors. Unfortunately for the country, large numbers, particularly in the medical profession, live and work overseas, and the restoration of civilian rule in 1999 has failed to bring an end to the brain drain’. Although labor law reform in 2005 weakened the capacity of the unions to organize political or sympathy strikes, the labor movement remains powerful, capable of organizing paralyzing national strikes. Value of indexa| | Global rankb| | Regional rankc| | 2006-10| 2011-15| 2006-10| 2011-15| 2006-10| 2011-15| 4. 4| 4. 6| 80| 80| 16| 15| a Out of 10. b  Out of 82 countries. c  Out of 17 countries: A lgeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAE, Angola, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| Population and Income Inequality The population in Nigeria is growing at a very fast pace, but given the poor state of the countries health care and educational system, this is only constraining the already dismal state of the country the growth rate is presented below, the high rate of population growth and the deteriorating state of infrastructure is not conducive enough for enticing foreign investment. Population (Million)| 2006| 2010| 2015| Total| 140. 4| 152. 2| 166. 7|Period averages (%)|   | 2006-10| 2011-15| Population growth|   | 2. 1| 1. 8| Labor force growth|   | 2. 4| 1. 9| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| Poverty in Nigeria remains significant despite high economic growth. Nigeria retains a high level of poverty, with 63% living on below $1 daily, implying a decline in equity. There have been attempts at poverty alleviation, but the inequality has been rising. Income inequality worsened from 0. 43 to 0. 49 between 2004 and 2009. This is correlated with differential access to infrastructure and amenities.In particular, there are more rural poor than urban poor. This primarily results from the composition of Nigeria's economy. Oil exports contribute significantly to government revenues and about 15% of GDP, despite employing only a fraction of the population. Agriculture, however, contributes to about 45% of GDP, and employs close to 90% of the rural population. This incongruence is compounded by the fact that oil revenue is poorly distributed among the population, with higher government spending in urban areas than rurally.High unemployment rates have rendered personal incomes even more divergent. The graph below gives a comparison of the population below poverty line in relation to the total  Nigerian population. Data Source: Economic Intelligence Unit Unemp loyment According to the ‘2011 Annual Socio-Economic Report' released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, the total number of unemployed people have increased from approximately 7 million in 2006 to 16 million in 2011. In 2011, approximately 2. 1 million people were newly unemployed.The report has also predicted the new entrants into the unemployed pool to be around 8. 5 million in 2015. The increase is also interestingly explained by the tendency of Nigerian university graduates to stay away from labor intensive work. They are now ready to wait for a white collar job thus resulting in the entry of new university graduates into the unemployment pool. The total number of employed labor force has remained fairly constant from 2006 to 2011 at around 51 million. However, 10 million new people have been added to the labor force during 2006-2011.The increase in labor force could be explained by the steady increase in the number of universities, polytechnics and colleges of educati on. While the enrollment in universities and polytechnics has decreased from around 460,000 in 2006 to 340,000 to 2011, enrollment in colleges of education has increased during the same period. Whereas the enrollment in state and federal institutions has decreased during 2006-2011, enrollment in private institutions has increased steadily. According to the report, the increase in unemployment rate has been kept in check by Nigerian government's employment policies.The unemployment rate in rural areas was 25. 6% and 17. 1% in urban areas. The total national unemployment rate was 23. 9% in 2011. Total unemployment rate amongst males was 23. 5% in 2011 while the same rate amongst females was 24. 3%. The report explains that married women who previously stayed out of the labor force have now started entering the market for jobs due to a raise in claim for financial independence. More women are also now forced to enter the labor market because of the need to supplement the income of male s in families.The unemployment rate has been consistently growing in Nigeria due to lack of industries, political stability and a myriad of other reasons. Unemployment is leading to crime and shadow economy which is further hindering investments in the country. Data Source: Economic Intelligence Unit Currency The Legal Tender followed in Nigeria is the Naira (sign:  ? ;  code:  NGN). The Central Bank of Nigeria referred as CBN is the sole authority responsible for issuing and maintaining the volume of the currency in the Nigerian economy.The currency was adopted by Nigeria on 1st Jan 1973 replacing the pound that was being followed since the colonial days. Money Supply and Monetary Control The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is the central bank of Nigeria. Since the global financial crisis of 2008-09, maintaining adequate liquidity and averting a total collapse of the banking system has been the main focus of the CBN. The CBN uses the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to anchor short t erm money market rates and other interest rates in the economy.Open market operations conducted through the Treasury Bills auction is the major instrument of monetary policy. The CBN also uses discount window operations (including standing lending and deposit facilities, repo and reverse repo operations) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) in monetary management. The banking crisis of 2009 and the subsequent reform initiated in the banking sector has complicated the monetary policy. The central bank also ensures that there is sufficient lending in key sectors such as agriculture.Since 1977, Nigeria has had an Agric Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) under the management of the central bank. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is responsible for maintaining a balance between its objective of managing inflation and the government's aim of reducing the cost of borrowing by the private sector to encourage investment in productive activities. The CBN is currently pursuing the former objective, having increased its prime interest rate six times during 2011: the Central Bank is attempting to counter what it sees as high inflationary expectations embedded in the system.As the forecast period progresses and the inflation outlook improves, the focus of the CBN will return to easing monetary policy and boosting lending to productive sectors. Nevertheless, this has been complicated by the banking crisis of 2009 and the subsequent reform program put in place by the Central Bank, which is likely to mean that risk aversion among the banks persists into the first part of the forecast period at least. Below is the summary of the key Monetary Indicators for Nigeria. Monetary indicators| 2007a| 2008a| 2009a| 2010a| 2011a| 2012b| 2013b| 2014b| 2015b| 2016b| |Exchange rate N:US$ (av)| 125. 8| 118. 5| 148. 9| 150. 3| 153. 9| 160. 7| 174. 0| 172. 0| 174. 0| 176. 0| Exchange rate N:US$ (year-end)| 118. 0| 132. 6| 149. 6| 150. 7| 158. 3| 170. 8| 173. 0| 173. 0| 175. 0| 177. 0| Exchange rate N:↚ ¬ (av)| 172. 44| 174. 33| 207. 46| 199. 42| 214. 19| 209. 71| 224. 46| 217. 58| 215. 33| 221. 76| Exchange rate N:â‚ ¬ (year-end)| 173. 66| 184. 49| 215. 49| 201. 31| 210. 42| 221. 23| 222. 31| 215. 39| 219. 63| 223. 02| Real effective exchange rate, CPI-based (av)| 38. 05| 42. 32| 38. 59| 42. 11| 42. 74c| 46. 39| 46. 44| 50. 42| 53. 60| 56. 5| Purchasing power parity N:US$ (av)| 71. 31| 80. 30| 88. 60| 99. 68| 115. 8c| 120. 9| 121. 0| 123. 9| 129. 2| 136. 3| Money supply (M2) growth (%)| 58. 1| 53. 6| 20. 6| 3. 7| -0. 5| 8. 7| 20. 5| 19. 6| 17. 5| 18. 5| Domestic credit growth (%)| 358. 3| 55. 9| 41. 1| 14. 1| 28. 1| 7. 9| 21. 5| 20. 7| 18. 2| 17. 7| Commercial banks' prime rate (av; %)| 16. 9| 15. 5| 18. 4| 17. 6| 16. 0| 16. 0| 14. 0| 13. 0| 13. 5| 13. 8| Deposit rate (av; %)| 10. 3| 12. 0| 13. 3| 6. 5| 5. 7| 6. 0| 5. 8| 5. 8| 5. 8| 5. 5| Money-market rate (av; %)| 6. 9| 8. 2| 3. 8| 3. 8| 8. 5c| 8. 8| 7. 0| 6. 5| 6. | 6. 0| a  Actual. b  Economist Intelligence Unit foreca sts. c  Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. Source: EIU| Fiscal policy While Nigeria’s fiscal policy during the last half of the decade has been favoring expansive expenditure in the productive sectors, there is growing pressure to introduce tough, unpopular market reforms to tighten the fiscal policy. However it will be difficult to do so considering the different interest groups that the government needs to placate and wider legislature that favors greater government expenditure to counter the crippling infrastructure deficit.Even as investment in infrastructure remains critical, how the government manages to bring down the share of recurrent expenditures while improving the quality of capital expenditure is the key challenge. Another challenge for the government will be how it manages its dependence on oil prices, the key component of its revenue. A return to recession in Europe or a less than expected growth in China could bring down the oil prices. Exchange rates Th e Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been responsible for managing the exchange rate and this was being done by auctioning of foreign currencies.The CBN sets the exchange rate. However, Nigeria’s currency fluctuations is correlated to fluctuations in the oil prices. In 2007, the Naira saw significant appreciation viz-a-viz the dollar due to increase in Global crude prices. Nigeria’s central Bank intends making the Naira exchange rates floating and policy decisions are being formulated towards this objective. The CBN also intends to make the exchange rate independent to the extent possible and aims at intervening only to meet defined policy objectives.The country has seen a huge depreciation of the Naira in the past 3 Decades, presently owing to the stable and strong crude prices the currency is considerably stable but is forecasted to slip further if the Global Economic crisis continues to deter. Source: http://www. exchangerates. org. uk/ Interest Rates The CBN kept it s benchmark interest rate at 12%. The CBN will find it hard to balance its objective of managing inflation and the government’s aim of reducing the cost of borrowing by the private sector to boost investment.Nigeria has seen a slowdown in economic growth in its economy as a result of slackening in global economic activities. As the tight liquidity condition persists, short term interest rates have been rising for the past couple of years. Another cause of concern for the CBN was the slowdown in interbank lending, which prompted the CBN to guarantee placements in the interbank market. This also helped bring down the interest rates in the short term money markets, such as the interbank call rates.The above table indicates the Monetary Aggregates and Interest Rates as obtained in 2010. Foreign Direct Investment Although the government will continue to welcome foreign direct investment (FDI), the level of FDI outside the oil and gas sector will remain low in relation to the poten tial size of the market. This reflects the complexities of the local business environment, together with the bureaucracy, corruption, low productivity, poor infrastructure and low income levels that restrict the potential market.The salient feature of the policy is enumerated. Full foreign ownership is allowed in all sectors apart from banking, although the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been more relaxed on the issue since the 2009 crisis in the sector and the subsequent need to recapitalize the affected banks. A new bill proposes to outlaw discretionary awards of oil and gas contracts, and stipulates that licenses must be given through â€Å"open, transparent and competitive† bidding processes.Nevertheless, a number of Asian investors, from China, India and South Korea in particular, who have shown keen interest in entering Nigeria on the basis that they concurrently develop local infrastructure, may still find themselves the preferred bidder on new acreage. There is als o likely to be a continued bias towards policy favoring local business, as evidenced by the recent local content bill for the oil industry that gives indigenous firms priority in the awarding of oil concessions and requires foreign companies to employ more local staff.As a result, and with other countries set to improve more rapidly, Nigeria will slip in the global rankings from 67th to 71st out of 82  countries, and from 12th to 13th in the Middle East and Africa region. Value of indexa| | Global rankb| | Regional rankc| | 2006-10| 2011-15| 2006-10| 2011-15| 2006-10| 2011-15| 5. 1| 4. 6| 67| 71| 12| 13| a Out of 10. b  Out of 82 countries. c  Out of 17 countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, UAE, Angola, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa.Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP) in Nigeria was 2. 99 as of 2010. Its highest value over the past 40 years was 8. 28 in 1994, while its lowest value was -1. 15 in 1980. The below outlines the Annual inflows of FDI along with its percentage composition of the gross fixed investment. (US$ m)| 2006| 2007| 2008| 2009| 2010| 2011| 2012| 2013| 2014| 2015| Annual inflows of FDI| 4,854| 6,035| 5,487| 5,787| 3,000| 3,500| 6,000| 7,500| 7,250| 7,250| % of gross fixed investment| 40. 4| 39. 7| 32. 1| 35. 3| 13. 7| 14. | 20. 5| 20. 9| 16. 8| 14. 2| Source: Economic Intelligence Unit| Globalization and Comparative Advantage Nigeria has not benefited considerably from globalization due to mono-cultural export, inability to attract increased foreign investments and huge indebtedness. And the way forward for Nigeria is to focus towards diversification of exports, debt reduction and expand developmental cooperation. Nigeria got connected to the rest of the world with the arrival of British in the Year 1539 and by the 1800’s Nigeria was under complete control of the British Empire.And since then Nigeriaâ€℠¢s trade has been heavily dependent on British trade. Nigeria has been a country rich in natural resources and traded these resources for weapons and tools. This asymmetric trade is the reason for the wide variance in the distribution of the nation’s wealth. The country received its independence in 1960 and during that time the Farm products was its major export. Post-independence, farm products constituted the major portion of Nigeria’s Trade. The six major agricultural products then were cocoa, rubber, palm oil, groundnut, cotton and palm kernel.And this constituted 69. 4% of its total GDP for the year 1963/64. The other contributor to exports was oil. However, during that period oil was priced low at $3. 8 per barrel and thus was not much lucrative. The 1970’s saw Nigeria’s fortune turn with the jump in fuel price by almost 4 times. Nigeria had high grade petroleum reserves and these reserves were easier to extract. The petroleum price rose to $14. 7 p er barrel by January 1974 and rates continued to soar reaching a high of $38. 77 per barrel in 1981.Within the same period, total revenue from oil rose correspondingly. By 1978, oil contributed 89. 1% of Nigeria’s export and in the same year contribution from agriculture plummeted to 6. 8% of exports. The overdependence of the country’s economy on oil exports has seriously hindered the development in other spheres. Globalization poses a multitude of challenges on Nigeria. The countries very poorly on education, health, agriculture and industrial development and therefore it is imperative that Nigeria focuses on these area to fundamentally transform the nation.The country requires focusing on technological development and science and Technology are required to be central theme of their Developmental Strategy. The Country also requires focusing on basic Infrastructure such as power supply and telecommunications and these must exist regularly and uninterruptedly. Also, in dustrialization, including manufacturing and fabrication must be brought in at the center place. There is a need to revitalize agriculture by utilizing the technologies in the field and shifting to mechanized farming. ConclusionThere is an element of risk of doing business in Nigeria even though the debt of the country is in a manageable state. A prolonged European crisis and a slowdown in China will lead to dip in oil prices and Nigeria will face difficulties in meeting its deficit requirements. The currency of Nigeria-Naira is currently seen stable and after depreciating by an average of 6. 3% per year in 2012-13 to N174:US$1, the naira is expected to moderate more gently in subsequent years, to N176:US$1 in 2016, though the currency has seen a continuous downslide when data is compared for the last three decades.After the Banking crisis of 2009, the banking sector is skeptical on lending to private sector, however the confidence is returning. The political risk of the country is seen as high due to factions in the government and the rise in Islamist fundamentalism. Piracy is also a major phenomenon in the Gulf of Guinea which makes Nigeria’s coastline a risky shipping port. Nigeria declared a state of emergency in January 2012 in the northern parts due to a recent spate of terror attacks; however no civil war or major instability is expected in the short run.The government has been accused of largely ignoring public grievances like unemployment, poverty, inequality in wealth and corruption. Unless the government steps up to address these issues and establish credibility there is risk of escalation. The President Mr. Good luck Jonathan has recently commissioned investigations into allegations of corruptions in the oil subsidies and replaced the Chief of the Police for failing to root out infiltration by the insurgents into the government offices.However the effectiveness of these measures will depend on their enforcement. The future of the Nigerian ec onomy therefore depends on stabilizing governance and enabling the parliament to unlock major reforms in the Oil and Gas sector. References 1. Economic Intelligence Unit – (http://country. eiu. com/Nigeria) 2. CBN Monetary Survey 3. Exchange Rates – (http://www. exchangerates. org. uk/) 4. Shadow Economy Reference – (http://news. bbc. co. uk/) 5. Currency Reference – (http://www. cenbank. org/)